USA – Paraguay Prediction – Can the co-hosts break down CONMEBOL’s best defence?
Nobody in Group D earned their place more honestly than Paraguay. Gustavo Alfaro’s side went through CONMEBOL qualifying the hard way: unbeaten in their final eight matches, ten goals conceded across the entire campaign, and victories over Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay along the way. They are not making up the numbers.
The question hanging over their opener at SoFi Stadium is Julio Enciso. The Brighton midfielder was stretchered off in a pre-tournament friendly. Scans cleared him of a structural tear, but he is still expected to miss this match. Enciso was the unpredictable one in Paraguay’s attack, the player who could conjure something from nothing when a game got tight. Without him, Alfaro is left with Miguel Almiron and Antonio Sanabria, both capable, both reliant on space that USA are unlikely to hand over.
For the hosts, this is the opener they wanted: home soil, a partisan crowd at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, and the full weight of co-host expectation behind them. USA won this fixture 2-1 in November 2025, which shows they can handle Paraguay when it counts. The edge is real. Whether it is enough against a side this well organised is the question worth asking.
USA – Paraguay Betting Predictions
Betting Tip: Under 2.5 goals
Ten goals conceded in eighteen qualifying matches. Paraguay are one of the hardest teams to score against coming into this tournament, and that defensive character is not going to disappear under World Cup lights. If anything, Alfaro will be more cautious about his team’s shape in a group opener. With Enciso out, the outlet for a quick counter-attacking goal is gone. Almiron needs space, and a USA side that cannot afford a home defeat in their first match will be compact and organised. One goal probably settles this.
Check the current World Cup betting odds to see where this market sits before the 01:00 GMT kick-off on 13 June.
Betting Tip: USA to win
Home ground, a big crowd, and a genuine quality advantage, narrow, but it exists. USA know this opponent: the 2-1 win in November 2025 is directly relevant, and Paraguay going in without Enciso removes the one man who might have unlocked a stubborn American defensive block. The Americans do not need to be spectacular. They need to stay tight, take their chance when it comes, and see it out. In this context, that is a reasonable ask.
Why Paraguay deserve more respect than they will get
Alfaro’s side will be dismissed by most of the SoFi Stadium crowd, but anyone who followed CONMEBOL qualifying knows what this team actually did. Beating Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay in the same campaign is not a routine achievement. History bears that out too, anyone who has read through the most memorable World Cup upsets will recognise the profile: compact South American side, no pressure, nothing to lose, and a favourites who underestimate them.
If Enciso misses as expected, the approach is simple: sit in, deny space, and find Almiron on the break. If Paraguay are still level past the hour and the crowd gets nervous, the game could open up. The hosts are still the likelier winners. But this is not a mismatch.
For more from the same matchday, our Qatar vs Switzerland preview covers another Group D fixture on 13 June.
Frequently asked questions
When does USA vs Paraguay kick off?
13 June 2026 at 01:00 GMT. The match is at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Los Angeles.
Who is the favourite?
USA are narrow favourites as co-hosts in front of their own supporters. Paraguay are well organised and hard to break down, but the home advantage and Enciso’s expected absence tip the balance towards the Americans.
What is our main tip for this match?
Under 2.5 goals. Paraguay’s defensive record was the tightest in CONMEBOL qualifying, Enciso’s absence limits what they can do going forward, and both sides will approach a group opener with care. One goal settling it is the most straightforward outcome.
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