Paraguay – Australia Preview – Can Paraguay survive without Almiron?
USA have already won Group D, and everything else gets settled at Levi’s Stadium in the San Francisco Bay Area on 26 June 2026 at 02:00 GMT. Both sides are level on three points. Australia sit second on goal difference; Paraguay need a win to go through.
The problem for Paraguay is Miguel Almiron. Their most dangerous player is suspended after a red card against Turkey, and losing your main creative outlet in a must-win game is no small thing. He finds space between the lines and creates danger that a more direct attack simply cannot replicate. Without him, Paraguay’s attack is more predictable and considerably easier to contain.
Australia have their own concerns. Jacob Italiano is ruled out, and Mathew Leckie is doubtful after picking up a knock against USA. But Nestory Irankunda came off the bench in that game and made an immediate impact, and he looks likely to start here. For a side that only needs a draw, having Irankunda in behind suits the gameplan well.
Paraguay – Australia Betting Tips
Betting Tip: Under 2.5 goals
Australia have no incentive to push forward. A draw sends them through, so they will defend in an organised block and look to spring Irankunda on the counter. Paraguay have to come at them, but without Almiron threading balls in behind, they are heavier on set-pieces and direct play. Rarely do both teams arrive in the same fixture with their attacking threat cut down by force: one through suspension, the other through injury. A tight, low-scoring game is the logical conclusion. Check the World Cup betting odds before kick-off to see what the book is offering on this line.
Betting Tip: Draw no bet: Australia
Australia are built for this. They don’t need the ball: a draw already puts them through. If they hold their shape and catch Paraguay on the break via Irankunda, they can win it outright too. Draw no bet protects the stake if it finishes level, and a draw is precisely the outcome Paraguay are working hardest to prevent. With Almiron missing and the game’s setup so clearly in Australia’s favour, draw no bet is the natural call here.
A record Paraguay will lean on
Paraguay have not lost a closing group-stage game in six consecutive World Cup appearances. That record counts for something under this kind of pressure. Whether it holds when their most important attacker is absent and a draw is already enough for the other side is a different matter.
On the same matchday, Japan and Sweden settle their Group F decider with similar knockout implications. If you are building an accumulator, our Ecuador vs Germany tips cover the other evening game.
Frequently asked questions
When does Paraguay vs Australia kick off?
Paraguay vs Australia kicks off on 26 June 2026 at 02:00 GMT at Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara.
Who is the favourite?
The market has this as genuinely even. Australia carry the calmer brief: a draw is already enough for them. Paraguay have the quality to win if they can replace Almiron’s creativity, but that is the key condition they need to meet.
What is our main tip for this match?
Draw no bet: Australia. The setup favours a side that defends deep and hits on the break, and that is exactly the game Australia intend to play. Under 2.5 goals points the same way.
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