Ajax – Atalanta BC Preview – Can Ajax bounce back at home?
Our Ajax vs Atalanta betting tips start with a simple observation: neither of these defences is in a state to protect anything. Kick-off at the Johan Cruijff ArenA is on Thursday 22 October 2026 at 19:00 GMT, and the Conference League league phase is about to get loud.
Ajax arrive stung. They went down 2-1 at Hajduk Split on Matchday 1, and that defeat gave Hajduk their first league-phase win in sixteen years. Not the start anyone in Amsterdam wanted.
The response came quickly, though: a 5-2 win over Groningen on Sunday, so the attack is clearly working even if the back line keeps leaking. Ajax have conceded in each of their last three games.
Atalanta come with the opposite problem and a similar result. They beat Pafos 3-1 on Matchday 1, then lost 3-2 at AC Milan on Sunday. Their win over Venezia in between ended a run of league defeats, and each of their last three matches produced four or more goals.
They also let in three at Milan and two at Juventus on their last away trips. Sarri’s side score freely and defend like a team in a hurry.
I give Ajax a narrow edge. Home crowd, a point to prove, and an opponent who has shipped goals on the road. Slight favourites, not more than that: Atalanta have the firepower to punish any slip, and Raspadori went off injured against Pafos, so their forward line is worth checking before kick-off.
Ajax – Atalanta BC Betting Tips
Betting Tip: Ajax to win
- Atalanta BC have lost three of their last five matches
Atalanta conceded three at Milan and two at Juventus in their last away games, and Ajax are at home with a result to repair. Míchel Sánchez’s side have been scoring plenty, and a visiting back line that has been opened up that easily gives them chances. The pick is a home win by a single goal or two. Expect it to be earned, not comfortable.
Betting Tip: Both teams to score
- Ajax have conceded in each of their last five matches
- Ajax have scored in each of their last five matches
- Atalanta BC have conceded in each of their last five matches
This is the easiest call of the three. Atalanta’s last three matches each produced four or more goals, and Ajax have conceded in each of theirs. Neither side is shutting a game down, and both are happy to trade punches. If Ajax win, Atalanta will still find a goal somewhere.
Betting Tip: Over 2.5 goals
- Ajax have seen three or more goals in four of their last five matches
- Atalanta BC have seen three or more goals in four of their last five matches
- Ajax have scored 14 goals in their last five matches
Each of Atalanta’s last three matches produced four or more goals. Ajax’s win at Groningen alone had seven. Add two open back lines and a home side desperate to answer Matchday 1, and a goalless first half would be the surprise. For the full range of lines on this tie, see the latest match odds and place your bets there.
What to expect in Amsterdam
Expect an open game from the first whistle. Ajax will press and try to win the ball high, because they want to hurt Atalanta before the visitors settle. Atalanta, for their part, play on the front foot even away from home, which is how they ended up conceding three at Milan.
The sides last met in the 2020/21 Champions League group stage, when Atalanta won 1-0 in Amsterdam. Don’t expect a repeat of that scoreline. Both teams are scoring far more freely now, and the safest read is that goals arrive at both ends.
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