Germany – Paraguay Preview – Can Paraguay finally score in a World Cup knockout match?
Five knockout matches, zero goals scored, no country in World Cup history has reached as many elimination-round appearances without getting on the scoresheet. That is the record Paraguay carry to Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, where kick-off is at 21:30 GMT on 29 June 2026 against one of the tournament’s most consistent knockout sides.
Germany have won eight of their last nine World Cup knockout matches. The one exception was a 0-1 loss to Spain in the 2010 semi-final, against a side then at the height of its powers. Group C added the latest evidence: 7-1 against Curacao, a composed 2-1 over Ivory Coast, then a dead-rubber rotation loss to Ecuador on Matchday 3. That last result matters very little. Germany finished as group winners with the squad depth and attacking quality to justify it.
Paraguay came through as a third-place wildcard. A 0-4 defeat to the United States in their opener put them in immediate difficulty, before a 1-0 win over Turkey and a goalless draw with Australia on 26 June gave them four points and a berth. They can hold a defensive shape. Whether they can get the ball into dangerous areas consistently enough to actually score in a knockout tie, against this Germany backline, is the question five previous elimination-round exits have left unanswered. The only World Cup meeting between these sides was also a Round of 16, in 2002, and Germany won that one 1-0.
Germany – Paraguay Betting Tips
Betting Tip: Germany to win
Germany topped Group C with the strongest attacking numbers in the group and a positive goal difference. Paraguay qualified with a negative goal difference and one win in three games. That gap cuts across squad depth, form, knockout experience, and historical record. Germany have won eight of their last nine World Cup knockout ties. You don’t ignore a run like that. Germany to advance.
Betting Tip: Germany clean sheet
The historical weight lands squarely on Paraguay’s attack. They have never scored in a World Cup knockout match, and the team news makes that problem sharper heading into Foxborough. Diego Gómez, their sharpest midfield runner and primary ball-progressor, is suspended after collecting two yellow cards against Australia. Miguel Almirón returns from his own group-stage ban and brings creative threat from wide areas, but he walks into a matchup against a Germany backline that now has Antonio Rüdiger covering for the injured Nico Schlotterbeck. Rüdiger starting a high-stakes knockout game is not a weakness. That swap costs Germany nothing. Check the World Cup betting odds at Campeonbet before kick-off to see where the market sits. The record and the squad news both point the same way, Germany clean sheet.
Betting Tip: Germany -1 on the handicap
Seven goals in the opening game set the tone, and the 2-1 over Ivory Coast showed the same clinical edge against a team with a genuine defensive plan. Paraguay will sit deep and look to absorb pressure, watching for counter-attacking moments. Against Germany pressing high with pace on the flanks, that compact shape tends to give way eventually. With Paraguay missing their most dynamic midfielder, a Germany win by more than one goal is the angle worth pursuing.
How the team news actually settles things
Schlotterbeck’s knee injury ends his tournament. Rüdiger steps in, and while no manager plans for a key centre-back to go down mid-competition, this particular swap brings in a player with considerable experience of exactly this type of knockout environment. Germany’s defensive shape holds.
Paraguay’s news is harder to take. Gómez was their primary ball-carrier from midfield throughout the group stage, and there is no obvious replacement in the squad for what he does. Almirón can produce moments from nothing, and Germany will need to track him carefully in wide channels. But asking individual brilliance alone to end a five-match knockout scoring drought is a stretch. The South Africa vs Canada preview covers a similar scenario, a wildcard side needing to produce something unexpected in the knockouts.
Several ties in this Round of 32 come down to the structural gap between the sides rather than anything tactical, and this is clearly one of them. The Jordan vs Argentina betting tips offer a comparison from the same weekend’s matches, with Germany’s case for a comfortable win among the strongest in the round.
Frequently asked questions
When does Germany vs Paraguay kick off?
29 June 2026 at 21:30 GMT, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough near Boston.
Who is the favourite?
Germany hold a clear edge. They topped Group C with strong attacking form and carry one of the best World Cup knockout records in the modern era. Paraguay qualified as a wildcard with a negative goal difference and need to produce something historic to go through.
What is our main tip?
Germany clean sheet. Paraguay have never scored in a World Cup knockout match across five previous attempts. Without Gómez in midfield and with Germany’s backline intact, that record is the most compelling angle in this fixture.
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