Paraguay – France Preview – Can the underdogs survive one more night?
Paraguay should not be here. That is not an insult, it is the whole story. Gustavo Alfaro’s side scraped through their group in third place and then needed a shootout to get past Germany in the round of 32, the first team in World Cup history to beat the Germans that way. Now the reward is a trip to Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia to face France, the tournament’s most ruthless side. Anyone hunting for Paraguay vs France betting tips is really asking one question: can the competition’s biggest underdog survive one more knockout night against a team that has barely put a foot wrong?
Kickoff is at 01:00 GMT on 5 July, a graveyard slot for European viewers but prime time in Philadelphia. France go in as clear favourites, unbeaten and untroubled through the group stage before brushing Sweden aside in the last 32. Paraguay go in as the neutral’s pick, low on reputation and high on nerve after outlasting one of the tournament’s traditional heavyweights on penalties.
Alfaro built this run on discipline rather than star power. Paraguay defended deep against Germany, absorbed spell after spell of pressure, and let Enciso’s goal stand until Havertz dragged the Germans level late on. From there it went to penalties, and Paraguay held their nerve when it mattered most. It is the kind of result that makes the rest of the bracket sit up. Portugal’s tense round of 16 tie with Croatia showed knockout football can turn on one moment just as easily; Paraguay’s players will know that better than anyone right now.
France, by contrast, have needed none of that fortune. Didier Deschamps stepped away from the touchline for personal reasons during the group stage and returned in time to see his side cruise past Sweden in the last 32. Kylian Mbappe did what he has done throughout, finding the net twice, while Bradley Barcola added a third, teed up by Michael Olise. France do not need to be at their best to win at this World Cup. So far, they have been anyway.
Paraguay – France Betting Tips
Three angles stand out here, in a bracket where Argentina’s bad-tempered round of 16 test against Cape Verde already proved reputation counts for nothing once the knockouts start. None of these picks needs Paraguay to collapse, just to lose the way the form book says they should.
Betting Tip: France to win
Paraguay are the lowest-ranked side left standing in the whole draw, and it is hard to find a version of this game where France do not eventually find a way through. Deschamps has the squad depth to change the picture from the bench if Paraguay dig in, and Mbappe is in the kind of scoring form that turns tight games one-sided on its own. Backing France to win is the straightforward read of two sides at very different levels right now.
Betting Tip: Over 2.5 goals
France have put three or more goals past three different opponents already this tournament, and nothing about how Paraguay defended against Germany suggests they can keep this attack quiet for the full ninety. Over 2.5 goals backs France to keep finding the net regardless of the scoreline, with Paraguay likely needing to push men forward and open themselves up in response. Get these bets on early and check the latest World Cup betting odds before kickoff, since goals markets like this tend to shorten fast once team news lands.
Betting Tip: Both teams to score – No
Paraguay managed only one goal across the whole of their win over Germany, leaning far more on their goalkeeper and their penalty takers than on their forward line. Facing a France defence that has barely been tested, backing Enciso and company to find the net here looks like a stretch. Both teams to score – No leans on the idea that Paraguay’s route through this tournament has been built on stopping goals rather than scoring them, and that is unlikely to change against the tournament’s sharpest attack.
The shootout hangover
There is a cost to what Paraguay just went through. Winning a shootout against Germany is the sort of result a country remembers forever, but it also means extra time, a mountain of adrenaline, and a squad that will feel it in the legs by the second half against fresher legs. Compare that to Switzerland’s more routine passage past Algeria in the same round, and Paraguay’s road here looks a lot more draining. Nerve got them through Germany. It is a different question whether it gets them through France too.
What a shock would mean
A Paraguay win would be one of the biggest results of the tournament and would match the best World Cup run in the country’s history in a single afternoon, matching a quarter-final run from over a decade ago that still gets talked about back home. That is the pull of this tie for neutrals. France, though, look like a side with too many ways to hurt teams for a giant-killing repeat. The smart money is on the form side to win comfortably, with the goals coming from the France end far more than the Paraguay one.
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