Croatia – Ghana Preview – Can Ghana hold the line with half a squad?
Sixteen years is a long time to live off one quarter-final. Ghana’s 2010 World Cup run, the deepest the Black Stars have ever gone, has hung over every campaign since: group-stage exits in 2014 and 2022, no qualification for 2018. On 27 June in Philadelphia they are ninety minutes from the knockouts for the first time since that summer. Our tips for this Group L decider favour Croatia. The injury list explains it.
Mohammed Kudus has missed the whole tournament after a quad injury in January. Thomas Partey isn’t in the squad, kept out by visa complications. Both established centre-backs, Alexander Djiku and Mohammed Salisu, are also absent. The squad Ghana take into this game is not the one anyone planned for.
Croatia arrive needing to win. They’ve taken three points from two games, winning 1-0 against Panama and losing to England, and a draw sends them home. Luka Modrić collected his 200th Croatia cap against Panama, and this could be his last World Cup group match. In tight, high-stakes games his composure is what Croatia lean on, and that matters when you’re trying to unlock a side playing primarily to protect a result.
Going into Matchday 3, England and Ghana are level on four points with Croatia a point behind. That scoreline tells you how both teams will play in Philadelphia.
Croatia – Ghana Betting Tips
Betting Tip: Croatia to win
Ghana’s defensive absentees are the decisive factor. Without Djiku and Salisu the backline has been rebuilt around players who weren’t expected to be in these positions, and Croatia, who build patiently and look for openings, should find it easier to unpick than they would against a settled unit. The must-win situation helps too. There’s no temptation to play it safe, so Croatia will attack from the off. Ghana, without Kudus, are trying to hold on more than threaten.
The World Cup betting markets are pricing this close to even, which is fair enough. Croatia are still the tip.
Betting Tip: Under 2.5 goals
Ghana’s job is to stay compact, deny space, and not lose. A draw puts them through, so they’ll sit deep, absorb pressure, and let Croatia have the ball in non-threatening areas. If Croatia score early, Ghana face a difficult decision: chase the game or accept they’re going out. If Croatia can’t break through, a 0-0 sends Ghana through. Either way, the scoring stays low. Two goals or fewer is where this lands.
The shape of the evening
You can map out how this plays before a ball is kicked. Croatia press because they have to. Ghana hold their shape and aim to frustrate because a point is enough. It tends to be settled by one moment in the final third rather than a flow of chances.
Ghana held a 0-0 against England in Matchday 2, and that is the strongest argument against the win tip: that patched-together defence absorbed pressure from a strong European side and kept a clean sheet. But England in a comfortable group position and Croatia with nothing to lose are very different propositions. Croatia will press higher, accept more defensive risk, and generate more in return. Our Japan vs Sweden preview covers how similar must-win situations have shaped group-stage deciders, and the Tunisia vs Netherlands game shows what changes when both sides need three points rather than one.
Modrić at 200 caps in what may be his last World Cup group game doesn’t win matches on its own. But a squad carrying that level of tournament experience is harder to rattle under pressure, and if the game is still goalless with twenty minutes to go, that steadiness could be the difference.
Frequently asked questions
When does Croatia vs Ghana kick off?
27 June 2026 at 21:00 GMT, at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.
Who is the favourite for this match?
The market has it close to even, which isn’t unreasonable. Ghana’s injury losses are significant, particularly at the back, but Croatia’s form coming in hasn’t been commanding enough to make this one-sided. Their attacking depth and Ghana’s defensive absences give them a narrow edge.
What is the main betting tip for Croatia vs Ghana?
Croatia to win, with under 2.5 goals as the frame for how it plays out. A tight game where Croatia find one moment and Ghana’s reshuffled defence can’t handle it.
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