HJK Helsinki – Motherwell Preview – Can Motherwell’s new era survive a hostile Helsinki test?
Thursday’s UEFA Conference League third qualifying round first leg at the Bolt Arena kicks off at 13:00 GMT, and it is a fixture built on an odd mismatch. Anyone weighing up HJK Helsinki vs Motherwell betting tips this week should start with the calendar, not the form guide. HJK are months into their season and playing with real rhythm. Motherwell are barely out of pre-season, with a new manager still working out his best team. Bookmakers have this one close. HJK look the favourites all the same, and the reasons go well beyond what happens on the pitch alone.
HJK arrive off the back of a one-sided tie against Coleraine, putting the Irish side to the sword over two legs to book this round. Domestically their form has been up and down: a comfortable away win at Mariehamn, then a chastening home defeat to KuPS that exposed the gaps in their back line. Joonas Rantanen’s side sit mid-table in the Veikkausliiga, but this is still a club that collects continental football most summers and are the reigning Finnish Cup holders. Match fitness and a settled group count for plenty at this stage of the qualifiers.
Motherwell are the story on the other side of this tie. Alfred Johansson, appointed from Rosenborg over the summer, is the youngest manager in the Scottish Premiership, and this is only his second European assignment in the job, after Motherwell eased past HB Torshavn in the previous round. The trouble is timing. Motherwell have lost several regulars this summer, among them Callum Slattery, Stephen Welsh, Elliot Watt and Elijah Just, and the new arrivals are still bedding in. A lengthy injury list has not helped either. None of that shows up in the betting markets. It shows up on the pitch.
HJK Helsinki – Motherwell Betting Tips
Betting Tip: HJK Helsinki to win
HJK have been playing competitive football since the spring and it shows in how they move the ball. Motherwell, in contrast, are still finding their feet under a brand new manager and a heavily reshaped squad. That gap in sharpness is the real story of this tie, and it should tell in Helsinki.
Betting Tip: Both teams to score
HJK’s defence was carved open at home by KuPS earlier this year, and Motherwell already have players who know where the net is after the win over HB Torshavn. Backing goals at both ends fits a home side that can be got at and an away side that is not shy in front of goal.
Betting Tip: Over 2.5 goals
HJK scored freely against Coleraine and will fancy doing the same here, while Motherwell’s patched-together defence is unlikely to keep things tidy against sharper opposition. An open night in Helsinki looks the more likely shape of this game, whoever comes out on top.
Whatever happens on Thursday, this tie is not finished in Helsinki. Johansson gets a second look on home turf a week later, and how much work he has left to do by then depends entirely on what his side produce at the Bolt Arena first.
Why the goals could come from both ends
This is where the tips get interesting. HJK were ruthless in front of goal against Coleraine, and Motherwell’s rebuilt defence has barely had a competitive run-out together. Lukas Fadinger, Regan Charles-Cook and Dylan Williams all found the net against HB Torshavn, so the visitors are not toothless up top either, even against a home side that has shown it can be got at. Worth checking the latest match odds closer to kickoff too, since team news on both sides could still move the picture.
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